Modest Proposal - AI Commoditization and Capital Dynamics

My guest today is Modest Proposal, joining me for our third conversation and the first in a few years. Modest is anonymous online, but one of the more thoughtful investors I know, overseeing a large pool of capital in public and private markets. He offers insight into many different corners of today’s landscape, covering AI’s frontier models versus open-source models, overcapacity issues in transportation in our post-COVID world, the potential economic impact of GLP-1 drugs, and more. Please enjoy my conversation with Modest Proposal.

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For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

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Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.

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Show Notes:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:04:00) Comparison to Mid-2000s Commodity Markets

(00:07:18) The Role of AI and Power Consumption

(00:09:29) NVIDIA and the Future of AI Investment

(00:13:10) Commercialization of AI and Market Dynamics

(00:23:14) Public vs. Private Market Performance

(00:28:03) Post-COVID Capital Cycles

(00:30:32) Capital Expenditures and Post-COVID Market Distortions

(00:31:47) Amazon's Capacity Expansion and Market Inflections

(00:33:45) Challenges in Displacing Market Leaders

(00:37:50) Behavioral Barriers in GLP-1 Adherence

(00:39:58) Public vs. Private Market Allocations

(00:45:08) International Equities and Japanese Market Potential

(00:47:35) Market Structure and Trading Dynamics

(00:53:22) AI Models and Future Market Implications